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Big Tractor Sales Gain Speed
6/15/2007
We’ve been keeping a close eye on tractor sales ever since the subject of ethanol, a renewable fuel derived from corn, really took hold and sparked speculation over the degree to which demand for it would impact sales of farm equipment.
Yengst Associates
yengstassociates.com

A quick review of farm tractor sales—particularly sales of large tractors—for the first two months of 2007, reveals that sales of 2WD machines rated over 100-hp were down roughly 8 percent and that sales of 4-WD tractors were down 19 percent. We noted that the period between March and May would be the most decisive in terms of determining what direction tractor sales would likely take for the rest of the year.
According to AEM’s flash reports on sales through May show there has been marked improvement in sales of large-size tractors, particularly in the US. The charts below illustrate this improvement and also show that year-over-year sales growth was particularly strong in the month of April. On a year-to-date basis, US sales of ‘2WD-100hp & over’ tractors are up 6.5 percent versus last year, while sale of 4WD tractors are up 6.2 percent.
Sales growth in Canada during March and May was confined to 4WD tractors. While quantity-wise, 4WD tractors represent a small percentage of Canada’s total tractor sales, year-to-date sales in this category are up 9.5 percent over last year after growing 2.8 percent in 2006 versus 2005.
Sales of ‘2WD-100hp & over’ tractors, however, are down 9.7 percent for the first four months of 2007 versus 2006. This is not surprising, though, since sales in this category declined 1.2 percent in 2006 versus 2005. In contrast to the US, tractor demand in Canada has been showing the most growth in the compact size over the last two years.
Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, we are confident that tractor sales will continue this growth trend for the remainder of 2007. For the US, we expect continued demand in all size classes except the under-40 hp category. Conversely, we expect tractor sales in Canada to continue to be strongest in the under-40 class, moderate in the 40<100hp class and flat in the 100hp+ category. Canada’s sales of 4WD tractors will continue to show strength in terms of percent growth, but will not greatly impact total sales due to the small number of them sold in comparison to 2-WD tractors.

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